Senate Democrats are preparing to vote this weekend on a slimmed-down version of spending plans more than a year in the making, but only if enough lawmakers are healthy to do so.
The vote has thrown a spotlight on the lingering effects of COVID-19 because several senators have been kept from Capitol Hill throughout weeks of negotiations over the Inflation Reduction Act due to positive tests for the virus.
And it’s created a harsh reminder of how fragile the Democratic majority remains heading into a potentially brutal midterm election, with the party unable to spare a single member and still pass the bill.
Democratic lawmakers have reportedly struck an understanding within the conference that testing ahead of the key vote should stop. Instead, according to Puck News, senators have adopted the attitude that the COVID-19 testing protocols Democrats previously touted as necessary should not stand in the way of a legislative win.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer dodged questions this week about how leadership would respond in the event a Democratic member tests positive for COVID-19 before the vote.
“We’re not talking about a plan B,” Schumer said. “We’re going to stay healthy.”
Schumer himself recovered from COVID-19 after testing positive in July; his main negotiating partner for the Inflation Reduction Act, Sen. Joe Manchin, tested positive two weeks later.
Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), also all tested positive for COVID-19 in July.
President Joe Biden’s continuing positive tests this week have loomed over discussions about whether the virus will force Democrats to push back their plans to advance the Inflation Reduction Act, a title Democrats gave the new plan in an effort to rebrand from a failed version of it from last year.
Schumer set a vote for Saturday after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), at last, announced she’d support the plan if lawmakers stripped out a provision to raise taxes on carried-interest income, or income that hedge fund managers can take from profits of money they manage.
Sinema had long opposed tax increases as part of any sweeping legislative deal, and the inclusion of the carried interest tax hikes in the agreement Schumer struck with Manchin over the past several weeks had caused some Democrats to worry she could scuttle the deal.
All 50 Democrats must be present on Saturday to vote for the bill, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tiebreaker. Unlike in the House, the Senate does not allow proxy voting.
The House implemented proxy voting during the pandemic.
But the Inflation Reduction Act still has one more major hurdle to overcome in the Senate.
The chamber’s rule-maker, the Senate parliamentarian, must still decide on whether Democrats can pass the legislation under a special tool called reconciliation. That allows Senate Democrats to bypass the 60-vote threshold to avoid a filibuster for most bills, with a catch: Bills that move forward under reconciliation must be budgetary in nature and not make what the parliamentarian considers policy changes.
That has left Democrats waiting on a ruling about whether all their provisions, which range from healthcare to climate change, can fit the requirements for passage under reconciliation.
The parliamentarian decided last year that Democrats could not raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour using reconciliation because it was not a purely budgetary measure.
Democrats can lift out any provisions the parliamentarian deems ineligible and advance a final product in the days ahead that complies with the rules.
But an unfavorable ruling could delay the timeline Schumer is eyeing by prolonging the drafting process.
And then, lawmakers will head into hours of debate on the bill, which includes opportunities for lawmakers from either party to add amendments that could force politically charged votes.
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The amendments need not relate back to the main themes of the Inflation Reduction Act and could involve anything from critical race theory to transgender policies.
Once the Inflation Reduction Act clears its remaining obstacles in the Senate, it will head to the House, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi must corral a more diverse and endangered majority to get the bill over the finish line.
House lawmakers are presently enjoying August recess, but Pelosi could call them back to Washington to pass the bill if her Senate counterparts successfully advance it over the next week.
